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The measure
How many wins were they worth?
WAR estimates the extra matchup wins a player’s performances were worth over a typical backup at the same position. A total of 2.0 means two additional expected wins in our reference league.
12 teams · Half-PPR
Every week, we compare otherwise identical simulated matchups with the player and with a replacement. Replacements come from the next 12 available players or defenses at the same position after filling starters and FLEX using archived weekly forecasts. Smaller pools use everyone available. Below-replacement games can reduce WAR. Byes and games without participation contribute zero.
Scoring settings
Passing 1 per 25 yards · 4 per TD · −2 per interception
Rushing & receiving 1 per 10 yards · 6 per TD · 0.5 per reception
Other player scoring −2 per lost fumble · 2 per two-point conversion · 6 per fumble-recovery or return TD
Field goals 0–39 yards: 3 · 40–49: 4 · 50+: 5
Extra points 1 made · −1 missed. Blocked kicks count as misses.
Defense & special teams 1 per sack · 2 per interception, fumble recovery, safety or blocked kick · 6 per return TD
Points allowed 0: +7 · 1–6: +6 · 7–13: +5 · 14–17: +3
Scoring details No yardage bonuses. Conversion returns: 2; one-point safeties: 1. Return TDs count for the scorer and D/ST. Points allowed exclude offensive giveaway TDs and offensive safeties; special-teams scores and conversion points count.
Sources & model assumptions
Player scoring components, play-by-play, schedules, participation and identities: nflverse . D/ST components use ESPN’s public weekly statistics (2018–2026); 2017 uses NFL game and play-by-play records. Historical projections and K/D/ST rankings: FF Today .
WAR beta. Archived forecasts choose the comparison field; actual results determine value. Offense uses half-PPR projections, while K and D/ST use weekly expert rankings. Archives are a single source, not a consensus or certified pre-kickoff snapshots. Only participants are eligible for that week’s pool. Close WAR totals should be treated as similar value.
Both teams’ other starters vary in paired, legal matchups; no player appears twice. Numerical sampling error is kept below 0.002 wins per player-week. That does not remove uncertainty in the model’s assumptions. Position filters change ranks, never the underlying WAR.
Only fully completed weeks are included. The canceled 2022 Bills–Bengals game contributes no performance. New data requires a refresh; this release does not update live.
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